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| UMM Rector when presiding over the UMM Political Survey event (Photo: Special) |
Ganjar Pranowo and Prabowo Subianto became the most popular candidates in a survey conducted by the Political Science Study Center of the University of Muhammadiyah Malang (UMM) in September 2023. Ganjar was ahead in a three-candidate simulation over Prabowo and Anies Baswedan, while Prabowo excelled in a two-candidate or head-to-head simulation.
Likewise, in the previous survey in June 2023, Ganjar, supported by PDIP and PPP, led with 42.8 percent or an increase of 0.5 percent compared to the June 2023 survey. It happened during a simulation of the trend of choosing three presidential candidates.
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However, compared to a two-candidate simulation or head-to-head, Prabowo came ahead with 50.7 percent over Ganjar, who got 47.4 percent. "We can say that in the second round, if the candidates meet, Prabowo is ahead of Ganjar in East Java," said Ruli Inayah Ramadhoan, S.Sos, M.Si, the coordinator of the survey team at the Political Science Study Center of UMM
The Political Science Study Center in East Java conducted the survey with 1,000 respondents. It was spread proportionally in 100 villages in 36 cities/districts in East Java. The survey is an independent scientific research funded independently by UMM.
"The first survey had 800 respondents, but we have more respondents this time, reaching 1,000 people. We surveyed during September 2023 with a sampling error of approximately 3.1 percent," added Ruli, a lecturer of International Relations at UMM.
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Based on the data from the survey, the increasing number of respondents' support for the Anies Baswedan-Muhaimin Iskandar pair, the earliest team to declare their presidential and vice presidential candidates, undermined Prabowo's numbers. Although still left behind in third place, Anies experienced an increase of 9.1 percent, from 10.4 percent in the July 2023 survey to 19.5 percent in September 2023.
Ganjar excels in the Mataraman (54.6 percent) and Arek (47.9 percent) when examined in more detail using the cultural agglomeration region. Then, Prabowo excelled in Tapal Kuda (47.6 percent) and Pantura (41.5 percent). Meanwhile, Anies excels in Madura (47.5 percent).
"Ganjar is popular among Islamic students, with 38.8 percent choosing the PDIP cadre. However, " Ganjar was ahead again with 43.3 percent among the non-Islamic students," explained Ruli.
When sorted in age, it turns out that Baby Boomers (59-85 years) and Gen-Z (17-26 years) chose Prabowo the most, with 41.3 percent and 45.6 percent. Meanwhile, Gen X (43-58 years) and Gen Y (27-42 years) are dominated by Ganjar voters with 44 percent and 43.6 percent.
"Most of our respondents, 75.8 percent, are affiliated with the NU organization. Then Muhammadiyah 3.2 percent, non-affiliated 20.1 percent, and the rest are several other mass organizations with an average of zero point one percent. From the data, respondents affiliated with NU and Muhammadiyah are likely to vote for Ganjar Pranowo," said Ruli.
According to the data received in the field, 41.6 percent of respondents affiliated with NU tend to vote for Ganjar. Prabowo is second with 39.3 percent, and Anies is third with 18.2 percent.
As for Muhammadiyah, the difference is very small. It is tense among the three candidates. Ganjar leads with 34.4 percent, then Prabowo and Anies are balanced with 31.3 percent.
"This morning, PDIP has announced Mahfud MD as the vice presidential candidate to accompany Ganjar. We also made the simulation, and Mahfud is a candidate who was the highest chosen by respondents in East Java according to our survey," explained Ruli.
He emphasized that Mahfud became the favorite vice president in East Java with 19.4 percent, ahead of Khofifah, who was second (14.5 percent). Meanwhile, Muhaimin, the vice president of Anies Baswedan, is in fifth place (10.9 percent).
In addition, in the simulation of three presidential and vice presidential pairs, Ganjar-Mahfud led with 42.7 percent, Prabowo-Khofifah (36.3 percent), and Anies-Muhaimin (19.7 percent).
The Ganjar-Mahfud pair based on cultural agglomeration areas excels in the Arek region with 48.8 percent and Mataraman (55 percent). In the Tapal Kuda and Pantura regions, they are below Prabowo-Khofifah, while in Madura, they are the most minor supported (17.5 percent).
"Mahfud does come from Madura, but in that area, it is controlled by Anies-Muhaimin with 47.5 percent, then Prabowo-Khofifah (35 percent). When the vice presidential survey was conducted in Madura, Muhaimin was higher than Mahfud," explained Ruli.
Meanwhile, the Political Science Study Center of UMM also surveyed to find out how much endorsement power President Joko Widodo has on presidential and vice presidential pairs. "People in East Java think that Jokowi's direction does not affect them. Likewise, the choice of political parties is not in line with the East Java people's choice of presidential and vice presidential pairs," said Ruli.
Based on the survey, 53.9 percent of respondents stated that direction or support from Jokowi had no effect. There were 9 percent who stated that they had no effect at all. Meanwhile, those who were considered influential were at 28 percent. (*/wil/put)
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