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| Political Science Study Center Survey (Photo: Special) |
Muhaimin Iskandar was the earliest to hold a ticket for a vice presidential candidate to accompany Anies Baswedan. This situation made the electability trend of the General Chair of the Partai Kebangkitan Bangsa (PKB) soar in East Java.
Based on a survey conducted by the Political Science Study Center of the University of Muhammadiyah Malang (UMM) in East Java in September 2023 with 1,000 respondents, Muhaimin rose from 5.8 percent in July 2023 to 10.9 percent in September 2023.
However, he still placed in fifth place, behind Mahfud MD (19.4 percent), Khofifah Indar Parawansa (14.5 percent), Ridwan Kamil (11.1 percent), and Sandiaga Uno (10.9 percent). Mahfud, Indonesia's Coordinating Minister for Political, Legal, and Security Affairs, gained electability from 15 percent in July 2023 to 19.4 percent in September 2023.
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"Several other names still appear in this vice presidential survey. They include Erick Thohir (10 percent), Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono (6 percent), Yenny Wahid (4.5 percent), and Gibran Rakabuming (4.2 percent)," said Ruli Inayah Ramadhoan, S.Sos, M.Si, the coordinator of the UMM Political Science Study Center survey team.
If examined in more detail based on cultural agglomeration areas, Mahfud MD excels in three regions, namely Arek (22.9 percent), Mataraman (16.5 percent), and Pantura (23.1 percent). "Mahfud is from Sampang, Madura, but loses support to Muhaimin with 28.8 percent on the Salt Island, although the difference is not much with Mahfud's acquisition (26.3 percent)," said the UMM International Relations lecturer.
Khofifah won in the Tapal Kuda region. However, in this region, the competition between the three is relatively tight. Khofifah excels with 17.5 percent, followed by Mahfud (14.5 percent) and Muhaimin (12 percent).
Meanwhile, regarding mass organization affiliation, where NU is the most dominant among the 1,000 respondents in this survey, with 75.8 percent, Mahfud is the most superior (19.5 percent). Khofifah is next with 15.6 percent and Muhaimin (10.7 percent).
"Apart from that, when a simulation of presidential-vice presidential pairs is carried out, both with Khofifah and Mahfud pairs, Prabowo is always slightly superior to Ganjar. Very thin," explained Ruli.
When Prabowo was paired with Khofifah, now the Governor of East Java, they won with 49.3 percent compared to the Ganjar-Mahfud pair (48.6 percent).
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The same condition is similar when the partners are swapped. In the simulation of the Prabowo-Mahfud pairing, they won with 49.6 percent compared to Ganjar-Khofifah, who won 48.7 percent.
Ruli explained that the detailed results of the survey, which UMM independently funded, will be presented by the Political Science Study Center of UMM on Wednesday, October 18, 2023, in the UMM Senate Conference Room. "The survey was conducted during September in all selected East Java villages. The number of respondents is 1,000 with a sampling error of approximately 3.1 percent," explained Ruli.
He added respondents were proportionally distributed in 100 selected villages and 36 districts/cities in East Java. The proportion of male and female respondents is balanced 50:50. Also, the proportion of respondents living in rural and urban areas. (*/wil/put)
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